Bhubaneswar: While the second COVID wave peaked between April and May in Odisha, there is very little sign of a subsequent wave in the state, said a study based on SVEIRD – Susceptible, Vaccinated, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered and Dead – model said.
“The Reproductive Ratio (RO) of Odisha is 2.245. Our study shows that Odisha has with all probability has crossed the peak of the 2nd wave, which is between April and May. Also, our calculation shows very little sign of subsequent wave in the state of Odisha,” it said.
The study published in medRxiv attributed it to the low population density (269 persons/km2 ) of the state and low infection rate of 1.164. Odisha can maintain social distancing norms without enforcing lockdown because of its low population density, it said.
The susceptible population was scaled down further on the basis of vaccination.
“With an increase in vaccination, the infection will slow down. To avoid 3rd wave, we have to increase the vaccination more the 5 times the current vaccination rate,” the study added.
World Health Organization chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan had earlier told the transmission will be more localised in the coming days. India may be entering some kind of stage of endemicity, she added.
If that is the case that districts with high population density and more susceptible population may report cases in future. Khurda, Cuttack, Jajpur, Balasore and Ganjam with a higher population density may emerge as endemic districts in Odisha. While a whopping 40.37 per cent of eligible beneficiaries in Khurda with a population density of 800 per sqkm has been fully vaccinated, the susceptible population is high in the remaining four districts.
Meanwhile, Odisha has projected over 19,000 COVID cases a day during the peak of a possible third wave, which the health authorities said is the worst-case scenario to over-prepare infrastructure and manpower.
While various models have predicted different possibilities, the government has been preparing in such a way that the system is not overwhelmed even in the worst case, said Additional Chief Secretary (health) Pradipta Kumar Mohapatra.
“These figures are used to ready our capacity for testing, beds, oxygen and drugs,” he added.